THE DOG THAT DID NOT BARK



We are now in the research age.One must be cautious about the findings of research.



Peters and Waterman made an international and formidable reputation—not to speak of millions of dollars—with their ‘ pathbreaking’ book IN SEARCH OF EXCELLENCE. But there is more to this than is popularly known.



These researchers made serious errors in the research leading to their findings. Such were the errors that even as the famous book was just about released ,a few of the companies listed as ‘Excellent’ almost went bankrupt.

In the years after that book attained near Biblical status most of the ‘Excellent’ companies are either bankrupt or far from the role models that the authors touted them to be.



What went wrong ? The authors committed that silent assassin of an error-the halo effect. In the course of their research the authors listed out high performance companies , then identified management strategies and tactics that they had applied and thereafter proceeded to conclude that it was these management practices that accounted for ‘sustained success’ a case of correlation leading to causation. Unfortunately reality overtook these ‘ findings’ as the ‘Excellent companies’ went downhill .A slew of books appeared on where the authors might have gone wrong .The chief faults were as follows

- the authors allowed themselves to be carried away by what they saw as top class practices without being critical about this line of reasoning

- they failed to see that many companies that followed other practices, including diametrically opposite ones had succeed

- Many companies that followed the same practices had fare poorly.

The list is long but what I wish to lay stress on here is this-in any research it is wise to seek disconfirming evidence.



Let me narrate a simple example closer home. In one of my articles I had suggested that ESP is not a proven concept and bristles of superstition at worst or chance, wishful, magical thinking at best. A reader responded that whenever his young son failed to return from school at the appointed time he or his wife would think about the child and presto the kid would make a telephone call. He suggested that ESP was therefore real and cannot be called humbug.



Now in the light of what I have been talking about so far I suggest that this reader’s claim can be cross checked quite easily.



Every day for the next 100 days let the parents think about the boy. Let them write down the number of times the boy rang up and the number of times he DID not ring up. Also vary the timing of this thought experiment so as to include several timings when the boy is NOT due to return ,say during class times. My effort is to try and figure out if there is more than chance factor to it all. You will agree that most kids these days are taught to call up parents whenever they are delayed .The arrival of the mobile phone has facilitated this.

The search for truth is extremely elusive and is perennial. DrV.S Ramachandran ,eminent neuro- scientist addressed an audience at Chennai last evening on the occasion of the release of his book THE TELL TALE BRAIN. Dr. Ramachandran is acknowledged as the world’s leading expert on the human brain. But what stunned all of us at the venue was his humility and tentativeness about his findings. Indeed the last para in the book says that man will NEVER know the truth about almost anything

Peters and Waterman are human too.



As for the dog referred to in the title I recall a Sherlock Holmes story involving a murder of a man with a ferocious pet dog. While the police had gone into the available evidence with a fine toothcomb they reached a dead end much like our homespun CBI. Holmes was summoned . This great sleuth quickly zeroed in on WHAT DID NOT HAPPEN . The ferocious dog DID NOT BARK on the night of the murder. Holmes concluded that the assailant was therefore someone well known to the dog and his master .Needles to say the murderer was quickly tracked down.



Research demands that we look at what did not happen.

Here is a poser. At Ramachandran’s function a lady doctor claimed that she can set right a misaligned bone merely by focusing her concentration on the affected bone---no medicine ,no surgery not even a massage.The patient can be thousands of miles away.My question –how can we devise an experiment to test this claim?



Courtesy KR Ravi